Is Trump losing his grip? A new poll reveals a surprising crack in his support, and it all boils down to one thing: the economy. While his base remains largely loyal, a growing number are questioning whether he's truly delivering on his promises to improve their financial well-being. But here's where it gets controversial... what exactly constitutes a 'good' economy, and whose responsibility is it to deliver it?
According to a recent poll conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, despite President Donald Trump's continued overall popularity among Republicans since his return to the White House, there's a significant and growing dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy. This is particularly concerning, given that the economy is widely anticipated to be the defining issue in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. It's no secret that a strong economy often translates to political success, and vice versa.
The numbers paint a stark picture. Only a mere 16% of Republicans now believe Trump has significantly improved the cost of living. That's a dramatic plunge from the 49% who felt that way during his first term, back in April 2024, when the same question was posed. This suggests a considerable erosion of confidence in his economic policies. And this is the part most people miss... it's not just about the big economic indicators like GDP growth; it's about the everyday experiences of ordinary people, like the price of groceries.
Furthermore, the poll indicates that approximately 40% of Trump's supporters believe he has helped at least 'a little' with the cost of living. While that might sound somewhat positive, it's a far cry from the 79% who expressed the same sentiment during his initial presidency. It seems the initial optimism has waned, replaced by a growing sense of disappointment. To illustrate this point, one 64-year-old respondent from New Rochelle, New York, lamented, "Still paying $5 for Oreos. I would expect it to be different by the time his four years are up." This simple statement encapsulates the frustration many feel when their everyday expenses don't reflect the promised economic improvements.
Job creation tells a similar story. While a little over half of Republicans acknowledge Trump's efforts to increase job opportunities in his second term, this figure pales in comparison to the 85% who agreed with that assessment in the 2024 poll. The percentage of Republicans who believe he has helped 'a lot' in this area has also plummeted, dropping a substantial 36 percentage points from his first term, landing at a mere 26%.
But despite these negative perceptions concerning the economy, Trump's base isn't abandoning him entirely. An impressive eight in ten Republicans still approve of his overall job performance. This is double the approval margin among all adults, indicating a strong level of loyalty. He also continues to receive positive marks for his handling of immigration, an issue that has dominated recent headlines. Around 8 in 10 Republicans believe Trump has helped at least 'a little' with immigration and border security, and most are satisfied with his deportation efforts.
It's worth noting, however, that even on immigration, his approval rating has seen a slight dip within the party, falling from 88% last March to 76% in the current poll. This could be attributed to various factors, including increased media scrutiny and evolving public sentiment.
Adding a human dimension to the debate, one 69-year-old respondent from Lancaster, Ohio, offered a controversial perspective on the fatal shooting of Renee Good by an ICE agent in Minnesota, stating, "I don’t like anybody getting killed, but it wasn’t Trump’s fault. [Former President] Joe Biden let millions of people in. They have to be taken out." This statement highlights the deeply polarized views surrounding immigration and the complex moral questions it raises. It also shows the degree to which some Trump supporters are willing to overlook certain events in support of his broader policies.
Overall, 38% of U.S. adults approve of Trump's handling of immigration, while a significant 61% disapprove. This stark division reflects the ongoing national debate on immigration reform and border security.
Interestingly, two-thirds of Republicans believe the country is improving since Trump took office, either 'much' or 'somewhat.' However, when it comes to their personal lives, that figure drops to around half. This suggests that while many Republicans are optimistic about the overall direction of the country under Trump's leadership, they are less convinced that these improvements are directly translating into tangible benefits for themselves and their families.
The AP-NORC poll, conducted from January 8-11 among 1,203 adults, provides valuable insights into the evolving sentiments of Trump's voter base. The margin of sampling error for Republicans is plus or minus 6 percentage points. So, what does this all mean for the future? Will Trump be able to regain the economic confidence of his base? And perhaps more importantly, what responsibility do voters have in critically evaluating promises made by political leaders? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below – do you think the poll accurately reflects the mood of Trump voters, and what do you think he needs to do to win back their trust on the economy?
