Britain's defence spending has taken a surprising turn, despite Sir Keir Starmer's promise to prepare the country for battle. The UK has slipped down the NATO rankings, now sitting at 12th place in terms of defence spending as a percentage of its gross domestic product (GDP). This decline is particularly notable when compared to the UK's position in 2021, when it ranked third before Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
According to NATO, Britain's defence spending in 2025 amounted to 2.4% of its GDP, a slight increase from 2.3% in 2021. However, this minor growth pales in comparison to the significant increases made by other NATO allies, especially those facing threats from countries like Russia.
For instance, Poland, a country bordering Ukraine and Russia's ally Belarus, has seen a remarkable rise in its NATO ranking. Poland has more than doubled its defence spending as a share of its economy, increasing from 2.2% to 4.5% over the past three years. Similarly, the Baltic states, in close proximity to Russia, have also increased their defence spending, with Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia all ranking among the top five NATO members with rates of 4%, 3.73%, and 3.38% respectively.
Matthew Savill of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) warns that Britain's failure to match the spending growth of other countries could undermine its position as a military leader on the global stage. He emphasizes the importance of political prioritization, stating that the UK has gone from being one of the few meeting NATO's 2% target to being in the middle of the pack.
"This could prove problematic for the UK, especially as NATO's target rises to 5% by 2035," Savill said. Sir Keir, the Prime Minister, has pledged to spend 2.5% of the country's GDP on defence by 2028, with an ambition to reach 3% during the next parliamentary term.
Savill further highlights the challenge of maintaining leadership status as targets increase. "While the UK can showcase its military capabilities, people may question why the rate of spending doesn't match the urgency expressed in rhetoric," he added.
When examining defence spending over the past decade, a similar pattern emerges. In 2014, the year Putin seized Crimea, Britain spent 2.14% of its GDP on defence, ranking third among NATO members, behind only the US and Greece. However, spending decreased to 2% in 2015 and only surpassed the 2014 level again in 2020, when a sharp GDP drop caused defence spending as a proportion of the economy to rise to 2.35%. Since then, the share has edged back, only surpassing the 2020 level in 2025.
In terms of absolute spending, the UK has historically been the top spender among European NATO members and second only to the US within the entire alliance. However, in 2024, Germany took the lead, spending $93.7bn compared to the UK's $84.2bn (£62.5bn). While Germany dedicates a smaller percentage of its GDP to defence than the UK, its larger economy results in a larger cash contribution.
Friedrich Merz, the German Chancellor, is currently leading a major spending initiative to rebuild the German military and its supply chains.
A British Government spokesman responded, "This government has increased defence spending as a proportion of GDP and will continue to do so in the coming years. Last year, the Prime Minister made a historic commitment to spend 5% of GDP on national security from 2035. This represents a significant generational increase in defence and security spending, reinforcing the UK's commitment to national security and its leadership role in NATO. The UK is currently the third-highest defence spender among 32 NATO nations and has announced the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the end of the Cold War, reaching 2.6% of GDP by 2027, along with an additional £5bn for defence last year alone."
The question remains: Will Britain's defence spending strategy be enough to maintain its position as a military leader, or will it continue to slip down the NATO rankings?
